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Today


IVolatility Trading Digest™ Blog


Volume 17 Issue 13
Foremost Indicators [Charts]

Foremost Indicators [Charts] - IVolatility Trading Digest™

Trade selection using volatility as the primary criteria. Different trades for different volatility opportunities.
Please read IVolatility Trading Digest™ Disclaimer at the very bottom of this page

To add comments or to ask questions please click here (or use the blog "COMMENTS" link at the very bottom of the blog page).

Until recently ad hoc reviews of various indicators seems adequate since the markets were in bull mode after the election. However, since the week of March 6, that’s no longer true as first noted in Digest Issue 11 "Consider Planting Hedges [Charts]" There were several important examples of "Buy buy the rumor sell the news" activity going into the nonfarm payroll report on Friday March 10. Then last week the S&P 500 Index closed below the upward sloping trendline ending the "Trump" trade. A more extensive indictor review follows including crude oil from the perspective of the latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC.

Review NotesS&P 500 Index (SPX) 2343.98 declined 34.27 points or -1.44% for the week closing last Tuesday below both the upward sloping trendline, USTL from the November 4 low and the first support at 2350. While still above the 50-day moving average at 2330.56, the next support is down at 2300 and then 2275 going all the way back to December 13.

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VIXCBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) 12.96 advanced 1.68 or +14.89 % for the week while the comparable IVolatility implied volatility index mean, IVXM 10.55 gained 2.50 or +31.06% reflecting last week’s pullback.

 

Here is the Implied Volatility Index Mean, IVXM for the last three months showing Fridays close at 10.55 the highest since December 30, 2016 at 11.40.

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The VIX chart

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VIX Futures Premium

The chart below shows as our calculation of Larry McMillan’s day-weighted average between the first and second months.

With 17 trading days until the April expiration, the day- weighted premium between April and May allocated 68% to April and 32% to May for a 8.65% premium the lowest since November 4, 2016 at -15.15% reflecting a higher VIX.

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The premium measures the amount the futures currently trade above or below the cash VIX, (contango or backwardation) until front month future converges with the VIX at expiration. Depending on the time to expiration, premiums for normal term structures during uptrends are 10% to 20% and decline when the VIX advances faster than the nearest future as the market declines and/or the futures decline as the front month expiration approaches. Premiums less than 10% suggest caution and negative premiums indicate oversold conditions when the VIX is higher than the futures and are usually associated with reversals.

In the past premiums below 10% usually preceded further declines as the VIX advances faster than the futures.

The US Dollar Index (DX) & (DXY) 99.44 down -.86 points or -.86% for the week

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Digest Issue 9 "Rotation Alert" included the mention of a possible Head & Shoulder Top underway see Left Shoulder, LS Head, H and Right Shoulder, RS above and now it’s just above the Neckline, NL at 99 that would activate the pattern with a downside measuring objective at 95 marked MO above.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) 120.88 gained 2.24 points or +1.89% for the week possibly in the process of forming an Elliott 5th Wave bottom, see the waves marked 3, 4, and 5 below.

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transportatoniShares Transportation Average (IYT) 160.74 declined 4.28 points or -2.59% for the week . On Tuesday March 7, before the nonfarm payroll report Friday March 10, it closed below the upward sloping trendline that began on October 26, 2016 at 141.68. Then Thursday March 9, it closed below the 50-day moving average shown on the chart below. Using this indicator, it appers selling preceded the payroll report news, selling into the strength expected from the report the next day creating a Dow Theory divergence.

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breadthMarket Breadth as measured by our preferred gauge, the NYSE ratio adjusted Summation Index that factors out the number of issues traded, and reported by McClellan Financial Publications , declined 98.46 points for the week closing at 222.25. It closed below its 50- day moving average on Tuesday March 7 providing further confirmation that selling was underway before the nonfarm payroll report.

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Crude Oil

Crude OilWTI Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) 47.97 basis May futures declined again last week, lower by 1.34 points or -2.72%.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) 10.09 chart below shows crude oil has given up all of its "Trump" trade gains from November.

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Small charts above Courtesy of StockCharts.com

From the Disaggregated Commitments of Traders - Options and Futures Combined report as of March 21, "Managed Money," the group that best correlates with crude oil price changes and arguably the most important, continued selling by reducing longs -15,536 contracts and increasing shorts -12,662 for a net change of -28,197 contracts or 9.05% of open interest from 9.46% the week before. "PMP" (Commercials) added another 6,038 long contracts while reducing their shorts by +11,814 once again offsetting a good portion of "Managed Money," selling as the March contract expired. Until "Managed Money," reduces selling pressure, prices will remain under pressure and so far they seem content with lower prices. The two-year chart below shows they increased their net long position early in the year after the OPEC and NOPEC production agreement and are now unwinding. In the past, March is when they began increasing their position.

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StrategySPX closed below its upward sloping trendline, as well as first support at 2350 confirming the end of the "Trump" trade at least for now. The next test will come at 2300, the second support and then 2275. While the indicators above are certainly negative, the current decline could be no more than an overdue pullback soon to be reversed like many others since the March 2009 bottom. Perhaps the proverb, it’s always darkest just before the dawn will hold true once again.

In the meanwhile, it may be prudent to consider using positions with limited and defined risk like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) April 235/230 put spread in Digest Issue 11 "Consider Planting Hedges [Charts]."

Summary

Equities and the US Dollar Index began turning lower and Treasury Bonds began turning higher before the nonfarm payroll report March 10 suggesting the interest rate hike announced March 15 means increased risk due to a changing investment landscape from extreme monetary accommodation to a tighter monetary policy that will slow the economy. Alternatively, it could just be more rotation out of the leaders into lagging sectors. For the likely answer, watch key support levels for the S&P 500 Index.

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Actionable Options™

We now offer daily trading ideas from our RT Options Scanner before the close in the News section of our home page based upon active calls and puts with increasing implied volatility and volume.

"The best volatility charts in the business."

Next week more trade ideas from our rankers and scanners.

March Madness Data Sale

Finding Previous Issues and Our Reader Response Request

PreviousIssuesAll previous issues of the Digest can be found by using the small calendar at the top right of the first page of any Digest Issue. Click on any underlined date to see the selected issue. Another source is the Table of Contents link found in the lower right side of the IVolatility Trading Digest section on the home page of our website.

CommentAs usual, we encourage you to let us know what you think about how we are doing and what you would like to see in future issues. Send us your questions or comments, or if you would like us to look at a specific stock, ETF or futures contract, let us know at Support@IVolatility.com or use the blog response at the bottom of the IVolatility Trading Digest™ page on the IVolatility.com website. To receive the Digest by e-mail let us know at Support@IVolatility.com

 

Comments:

Sometime, can you explain the daily "best calendar spread" and why it is good? Thank you!

Posted by 52.6.122.109 on March 30, 2017 at 03:13 AM EDT

Interested Trader, Thanks for the "best calendar spread" question. Sorry for the delay responding. Calendar Spreads, also called time spreads are one of the basic strategies in the toolbox often used for quarterly reporting by selling the near term option with higher implied volatility and buying the same strike price in the deferred month with a lower implied volatility. However, since this position will have short gamma or the rate of change of delta, any large move of the underlying stock on the report date will result in a loss. “The Best Calendar Spread” is a regular feature in the Rankers & Scanners section of our home page. These sample suggestions are returns from our Spread Scanner that is automatically set to search for long call calendar spreads by scanning for differentials between the near term implied volatility compared to the deferred month implied volatility. However, option volume is not considered. They are simply ideas for further investigation. Calendar Spreads are always problematic since in many cases the higher implied volatility is well justified by events underway making the near term options priced correctly. Use the suggestions as a starting point and then see if the idea has merit based upon the fundamentals and other criteria including the options volume and time to expiration. Jack

Posted by Jack (52.6.122.109) on May 01, 2017 at 04:20 PM EDT


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IVolatility.com is not a registered investment adviser and does not offer personalized advice specific to the needs and risk profiles of its readers.Nothing contained in this letter constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before entering a position check to see how prices compare to those used in the digest, as the prices are likely to change on the next trading day. Our personnel or independent contractors may own positions and/or trade in the securities mentioned. We are not compensated in any way for publishing information about companies in the digest. Make sure to due your fundamental and technical analysis homework along with a realistic evaluation of position size before considering a commitment.

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