Our Probability Calculator allows you the choice of using the implied volatilities of options or historical volatilities of securities to assess your strategy's chances of success before you place your trade. It factors in dividends and interest rates over any time period you input and returns the statistical probability the underlying will finishing above, below or between two target prices of your choosing.

The Probability Calculator can be useful for both stock and options traders alike. Simply select a stock, check all the populated fields, choose a future date, your forecasting volatility metric, your target prices, and discover valuable insights. All the data is supplied by IVolatility. You have the choice between the following volatility metrics:

- Custom
- ATM Volatility
- IVX 30D
- IVX 60D
- IVX 90D
- IVX 120D
- IVX 150D
- IVX 180D
- HV 10D
- HV 30D
- HV 60D
- HV 120D
- HV 150D
- HV 180D

The probability calculator will return the following probabilities:

- Finish below target price 1
- Finish between target prices 1 and 2
- Finish above target price 2
- Probability of touching target price 1
- Probability of touching target price 2
- Probability of touching both
- Probability of touching either
- Probability of touching neither

Our probability calculator stands out from the rest in three aspects: flexibility of inputs and outputs, accuracy of calculations, and consideration of drift. Our calculator allows for a wide range of forecasting volatility inputs, including ATM Volatility which is automatically populated for the contract expiring on your chosen future date. Other tool providers which lack this data cannot provide this feature. Further, the tool outputs a range of probabilities, allowing you to act on more information than your competitors using tools which only output Probability of Touch or just Probability of Finish. Second, our Probability Calculator has been used by thousands of clients both on our site and as a white labelled product to major brokerages (our native calculator packs more features than our white labelled products but contains the same fundamental math). Lastly, we have one of the few products which factors in drift. Drift is a complex concept, but simply put: While volatility is nondirectional, interest rates and dividends effectively give underlying's direction over time. This "drift" may seem inconsequential on an ad hoc basis, but over time, factoring it in gives you an advantage over those who do not factor it in. Don't worry–we do that for you!

Our probability calculator is available within IVolLive as well as a standalone tool accessible from your dashboard. The embedded tool in IVolLive is the more powerful of the two since it includes additional output fields.


IVolLive embedded: