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Today


IVolatility Trading Digest™


Volume 21 Issue 38
Holding the Line [Charts]

Storm Clouds Gathering [Charts]

Unlike a song with same title, our "Hold the Line" not surprisingly refers to the S&P 500 Index as it declined down to challenge support at the 50-day Moving Average. It seems the seasonal tendency to decline in September received enough attention by the financial media to turn sentiment indicators negative enough to keep "buy-the- dippers" on the sidelines. The Market Review adds details along with declaring once again, that the odds favor the pullback ending soon.

Review Notes

S&P 500 Index (SPX) 4432.99 slid 25.59 points or -.57% last week closing 3.36 points or -.08% below the key 50-day Moving Average at 4436.35.Three of five trading days risk-off sectors held up better than the more cyclical risk-on sectors led by Energy on Monday and Wednesday.

 

Although it closed below the 50-day Moving Average as well as the upward sloping trendline, hereby sending hedge signals, odds still favor it holding since it contained the last 9 pullbacks after the October 30 double bottom low. Since support should be considered more like an area that a specific number some latitude should be allowed. However, multiple closes below the 50-day Moving average or a large one-day decline from here on increased volume will swing the pendulum enough to start hedging long risk.

Riding last week's horseracing analogy a bit farther, "if the favorite thoroughbred won its last 9 races, would you bet it to lose the next?" Down below the 50-day Moving Average early in the day, by 2:00 p.m. on Friday, it looked as if support was not going to hold thanks in part to the financial media scaring away "buy-the-dippers" with excessive September seasonal babble along with futures and options trading. At 3:00 p.m., going into the last turn, and below by 1.98 points, hope faded coming into the home stretch, now below by 5.04 points.

At the wire, there could have been a stampede for the exit in the last hour like a wild herd of horses heading for one small gate in the fence. Instead it finally closed 3.36 points below the key 50-day Moving Average. An exciting race on volume of 3.7 bn shares, the highest since March 19 at 4.7 bn shares during pullback number four of the nine pullback sequence, one that also tested and held the 50-day Moving Average. Noteworthy: March 19 and last Friday were both monthly and quarterly futures and options expiration dates.

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) 373.83 declined 2.76 points or -.73% last week closing below the important upward sloping trendline that began on May 19 at 315.93 and touches the August 19 low at 359.96. However, it's still above the 50-Day Moving average now at 369.63. Following the lead of the SPX odds favor support from the 50-day Moving Average will hold. However, should it continue lower and close below the 50-Day Moving Average and follow the SPX lower, consider hedging long positions.

Review NotesCBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) declined .14 points or -.67% last week ending at 20.81. Our similar IVolatility Implied Volatility Index Mean, IVXM using four at-the-money options for each expiration period along with our proprietary technique that includes the delta and vega of each option, added .19 points or +1.28% to close at 15.09% compared to 14.90% for the week ending September 10.

Our estimate of the mean for the current relevant range that begins on June 5, 2020 at 19.70% and slopes downward, ended Friday at 15.03%, slightly below Friday's close. 

table

VIX Futures Premium

VIX futures premium on Friday ended at 8.80%, in the yellow caution zone with October the new front month vs. 1.38% last week before September futures expired last Wednesday. Better than last week, but the faster moving elevated VIX narrows the spread.

table

Since most of the volume and open interest are in the two closest futures contracts measuring the volume-weighted premium relative to the standard 30-day VIX provides a good real-time sentiment indicator based upon actual commitments of large Asset Managers and Leveraged Funds. The chart reflects the distance from the VIX to the futures curve computed from the two front month contracts.

Review NotesMarket Breadth as measured by our preferred gauge, the NYSE ratio adjusted Summation Index that considers the number of issues traded, and reported by McClellan Financial Publications. Last week risk-off rotation into big cap liquid stocks continued as the index declined 66.04 points or -81% to end at 15.75 while approaching the September 21, 2020 low at 6.03 adding support to the September seasonal weakness narrative.

table

Another disappointing week for the bulls from this perspective. However, if the SPX follows the 9-pullback script above, "buy-the-dippers" should be alert and get ready this week.


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WTI Crude Oil (CL)71.97 basis October futures ended the week up 2.22 points or +3.18% higher. Cash ended Tuesday September 14, at 70.46 up 2.11 for the week. An updated cash chart:

table

The most recent top occurred on July 13 at 75.25 just .05 above the previous top made on October 2, 2018 at 75.20. See the two tops in the chart above.

Strategy

In bull markets, a good strategy is to stay long equities and/or ETFs and then tactically hedge pullbacks as they begin developing, since ordinary pullbacks can become corrections when something unexpected happens. Then corrections can become downturns when something else unexpected happens, and downturns can become bear markets when many unexpected things change medium and long-term fundamentals.

Absent an unanticipated fundamental change (which could occur), odds favor the current pullback ending in the next few days. Perhaps Wednesday after Jay Powell's comments following the FOMC meeting. This week September will soon be winding down and the effect of futures and options trading (positioning) at the end of the quarter will diminish.

However, be ready to hedge individual long positions with option collars if support fails to hold. Should it become necessary hedge the broad market with SPY put spreads or the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) described in Digest Issue 34 "Breadth Disappoints [Charts]." 

Summary

Last week the S&P 500 Index failed to hold narrowly defined support at the 50-day Moving Average. Although odds still favor support holding since quarterly futures and options expiration greatly expanded volume and likely influenced closing prices to some extent assisted by the financial media.

By Jack Walker

Actionable Options™


We now offer daily trading ideas from our RT Options Scanner before the close in the IVolatility News section of our home page based upon active calls and puts with increasing implied volatility and volume.


“The best volatility charts in the business.”

Next week the Digest will update the market review.

Finding Previous Issues and Our Reader Response Request

PreviousIssues

All previous issues of the Digest can be found by using the small calendar at the top right of the first page of any Digest Issue. Click on any underlined date to see the selected issue. Another source is the Table of Contents link found in the lower right side of the IVolatility Trading Digest section on the home page of our website.

 

CommentAs always, we encourage you to let us know what you think about how we are doing and what you would like to see in future issues. Send us your questions or comments, or if you would like us to look at a specific stock, ETF or futures contract, let us know at Support@IVolatility.com or use the blog response at the bottom of the IVolatility Trading Digest™ page on the IVolatility.com website. To receive the Digest by e-mail let us know at Support@IVolatility.com

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IVolatility Trading DigestTM Disclaimer
IVolatility.com is not a registered investment adviser and does not offer personalized advice specific to the needs and risk profiles of its readers.Nothing contained in this letter constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before entering a position check to see how prices compare to those used in the digest, as the prices are likely to change on the next trading day. Our personnel or independent contractors may own positions and/or trade in the securities mentioned. We are not compensated in any way for publishing information about companies in the digest. Make sure to due your fundamental and technical analysis homework along with a realistic evaluation of position size before considering a commitment.

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